NancyLebovitz comments on Open Thread: July 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: Alicorn 09 July 2010 06:54AM

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Comment author: Morendil 31 July 2010 03:10:34PM 1 point [-]

I don't post things like this because I think they're right, I post them because I think they are interesting. The geometry of TV signals and box springs causing cancer on the left sides of people's bodies in Western countries...that's a clever bit of hypothesizing, right or wrong.

In this case, an organization I know nothing about (Vetenskap och Folkbildning from Sweden) says that Olle Johansson, one of the researchers who came up with the box spring hypothesis, is a quack. In fact, he was "Misleader of the year" in 2004. What does this mean in terms of his work on box springs and cancer? I have no idea. All I know is that on one side you've got Olle Johansson, Scientific American, and the peer-reviewed journal (Pathophysiology) in which Johansson's hypothesis was published. And on the other side, there's Vetenskap och Folkbildning, a number of commenters on the SciAm post, and a bunch of people in my inbox. Who's right? Who knows. It's a fine opportunity to remain skeptical.

-- Jason Kottke

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 31 July 2010 05:39:01PM 7 points [-]

If breast cancer and melanomas are more likely on the left side of the body at a level that's statistically significant, that's interesting even if the proposed explanation is nonsense.

Comment author: Morendil 31 July 2010 06:06:50PM *  3 points [-]

Even so, ISTM that picking through the linked article for its many flaws in reasoning would have been more interesting even than not-quite-endorsing its conclusions.

What I find interesting is the question, what motivates an influential blogger with a large audience to pass on this particular kind of factoid?

The ICCI blog has an explanation based on relevance theory and "the joy of superstition", but unfortunately (?) it involves Paul the Octopus:

We may get pleasure from having our expectations of relevance aroused. We often indulge in this pleasure for its own sake rather than for the cognitive benefits that only truly relevant information may bring. This, I would argue, is why, for instance, we read light fiction. This is why I could not resist the temptation of writing a post about Paul the octopus even before feeling confident that I had anything of relevance to say about it.

(ETA: note the parallel between the above and "I post these things because they are interesting, not because they're right". And to be lucid, my own expectations of relevance get aroused for the same reasons as most everyone else's; I just happen to be lucky enough to know a blog where I can raise the discussion to the meta level.)