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jimmy comments on Dialectical Bootstrapping - Less Wrong
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Comments (7)
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/06/average-your-gu.html
The same point is made there, with the addition that the second guess is usually worse than the first. What kind of weighting do we need to put second answer so that we can eliminate that bias? It has to be less than one (since the second answer is worse than the first), but more than one fourth (since the average is better than the first guess)
The improvement in this paper, over simply making two estimates one after another, is the focus on assuming your first estimate is wrong while constructing your second estimate.
The control group in the paper did make two estimates; I'll edit to emphasize that.