Isn't this, all by itself, an example of improper reasoning?

Yes, you are right -- we can't draw such a blanket conclusion just from observing the present situation. My choice of words wasn't very good there.

However, my conclusion is actually based on more than that, namely a more detailed consideration of both the human nature and the wider historical precedent. Unfortunately, it's a topic too complex to be discussed satisfactorily in a single comment, so I just wanted to draw attention to these unpleasant facts that are undoubtedly relevant for the point of the original post.