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rhollerith_dot_com comments on What Intelligence Tests Miss: The psychology of rational thought - Less Wrong
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The guy who runs Stratfor ("Economic, political and military strategic forecasting") opined that the main reason for the invasion of Iraq was to put pressure on Saudi Arabia to stop funding religious schools that produce most of the Islamic extremists, direct military action against Saudi Arabia having been viewed as too costly.
I think the main reason for the invasion of Iraq was the unprecedented influence of the Project for the New American Century. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century
I think that's basically a category error. Yes, you need to know who is making decisions before you can assess why they made them, but it certainly doesn't answer the question of why they made the decisions.
Also, I don't see any puppet strings. Why talk about PNAC, rather than Team B? Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz (but not Cheney) were paranoid decades ago.
Could it have been the convergence of three factors: money to be made from a war, Iraq weakened by sanctions, and the shock of 9/11?
By talking about the PNAC, I mean both that the war was caused by influential member individuals of the PNAC, as well as because of the idealistic cause behind the PNAC -- continued American hegemony. The Iraq War was a failed attempt at continuing American hegemony into the 21st century.