Regarding the second point, here is my 2p on "The Lights in the Tunnel":
"The Lights in the Tunnel" is a whole book about a topic I am interested in: the effects of automation. However, there is a serious flaw that pervades the book's whole analysis:
Martin argues that the economy will crash - as machines take the jobs of consumers, they no longer have any money to spend on things - and cash flows spiral downwards.
Martin says: "Another way of expressing this is to say that although machines may take over people’s jobs, the machines - unless we are really going to jump into the stuff of science fiction - do not participate in the market as consumers" - page 24.
However, machines still participate in the market indirectly - via people. Humans buy fuel, spare parts, add-ons and "consumables" for their machines. Machines still "consume" - even if they don't have bank accounts and can't go to the shops. The resulting effect on the economy is much the same as if the machines were themselves consumers.
This seemingly-simple point destroys much of the book's DOOM-mongering analysis. There are some other good things in the book - but IMO, the author damages the reader's view of his competence by making this kind of mistake.
Hi,
This is Martin Ford, the author of The Lights in the Tunnel. I just wanted to respond to your comment here:
If the average consumer is unemployed and has no income, he is obviously not going to be purchasing stuff for his machines. In fact, ownership of the machines will concentrate into a shrinking elite as machines take the jobs of average people.
Remember that the focus here is on what we might call "end consumption." If you consider GDP, consumer spending is about 70% of that. It is important to note that that is only END consumption by
The question that the ideas are supposed to be in response to is:
Here are links to some proposed ideas that you should vote for, assuming you agree with them. You do have to register to vote, but the email confirmation arrives right away and it shouldn't take much more than two minutes of your time altogether. Why should you do this? The top voted ideas from this request for ideas will be seen by some of the top policy recommendation makers in the USA. They probably won't do anything like immediately convene a presidential panel on AGI, but we are letting them know that these things are really important.
Research the primary cause of degenerative diseases: aging / biological senescence
Explore proposals for sustaining the economy despite ubiquitous automation
Establish a Permanent Panel or Program to Address Global Catastrophic Risks, Including AGI
Does anyone have any other ideas? Feel free to submit them directly to ideascale, but it may be a better idea to first post them in the comments of this post for discussion.