of what threshold heritability coefficient?
This is what I meant about quantifying the probability estimate before clarifying the exact question. As I said originally, I'm skeptical of a strong heritability for rationality independent of IQ. I'm not sure what the correct statistical terminology is for talking about this kind of question. I think there is a low probability that a targeted genetic modification could increase rationality independent of IQ in a significant and measurable way. That belief doesn't map in a straightforward way onto a claim about the heritability of rationality. I'm expecting What Intelligence Tests Miss to help clarify my thinking about what kind of test could even be used to reliably separate a 'rationality' cognitive trait from IQ which would be a necessary precondition to measuring the heritability of rationality.
Given that memory, verbal intelligence, spatial reasoning and general intelligence all have values of H of around 0.4, it seems that P{H>0.3) ~ 70%
These all correlate significantly with IQ however I believe (correct me if you think I'm wrong on this). It's at least plausible that targeted genetic modifications could improve say spatial or verbal reasoning significantly more than IQ (perhaps by lowering scores in other areas) since there is some evidence of sex differences in these traits. Rationality seems more like a way of reasoning and a higher level trait than these 'specialized' forms of intelligence however.
Rationality seems more like a way of reasoning and a higher level trait than these 'specialized' forms of intelligence however.
Maybe. Actually, I think that the dominant theory around here is that rationality is actually the result of an atrophied motivated-cognition module, so perfect rationality is not a question of creating a new brain module, but subtracting off the distorting mechanisms that we are blighted with.
The question that the ideas are supposed to be in response to is:
Here are links to some proposed ideas that you should vote for, assuming you agree with them. You do have to register to vote, but the email confirmation arrives right away and it shouldn't take much more than two minutes of your time altogether. Why should you do this? The top voted ideas from this request for ideas will be seen by some of the top policy recommendation makers in the USA. They probably won't do anything like immediately convene a presidential panel on AGI, but we are letting them know that these things are really important.
Research the primary cause of degenerative diseases: aging / biological senescence
Explore proposals for sustaining the economy despite ubiquitous automation
Establish a Permanent Panel or Program to Address Global Catastrophic Risks, Including AGI
Does anyone have any other ideas? Feel free to submit them directly to ideascale, but it may be a better idea to first post them in the comments of this post for discussion.