timtyler comments on The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology is soliciting ideas - Less Wrong

9 Post author: Kevin 12 July 2010 11:41PM

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Comment author: timtyler 16 July 2010 07:36:19PM *  2 points [-]

The idea being criticised is that - if a few humans dominate the economy by commanding huge armies of robot minions, then - without substantial taxation - the economy will grind to a halt - since hardly any humans are earning any money, and so therefore hardly any humans are spending any money.

The problem with that is that the huge armies of robot minions are consuming vast quantities of material while competing with each other for resources - and the purchase of all those goods is not being accounted for anywhere in the model - apparently because of the ideas that only humans are consumers and most humans are unemployed .

It seems like a fairly straightforwards modelling mistake to me. The purchase of robot fuel and supplies has GOT to be accounted for. Account for it as mega-spending by the human managing director if you really must - but account for it somewhere. As soon as you do that, the whole idea that increassed automation leads to financial meltdown vanishes like a mirage.

We already have a pretty clear idea about the effect of automation on the economy - from Japan and South Korea. The machines do a load of work, and their bodies need feeding - creating demand for raw materials and fuel - and the economy is boosted.

Comment author: jimrandomh 16 July 2010 08:54:23PM *  1 point [-]

How does needing raw materials create employment for the rest of the population? If everything is mechanized, then raw materials come from those who own mines/wells, and the extraction is done by robot labor. That doesn't involve very many people.

Comment author: timtyler 17 July 2010 08:51:07AM *  0 points [-]

It doesn't create employment for the rest of the humans. In this scenario, most humans are unemployed - and probably rather poor - due to the hypothesised lack of "substantial taxation" and government handouts. The throughput of the economy arises essentially from the efforts of the machines.