Vladimir_Nesov comments on Politicians stymie human colonization of space to save make-work jobs - Less Wrong

11 [deleted] 18 July 2010 12:57PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 18 July 2010 07:50:59PM *  5 points [-]

Still depends on the nature of the event (Russel's teapot). There is no default level of certainty, no magical 50/50.

Comment deleted 18 July 2010 08:12:03PM [-]
Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 18 July 2010 08:50:22PM *  1 point [-]

Unfortunately, you often have to rule intuitively. How does complexity figure in the estimation of probability of gray goo? Useful heuristic, but no silver bullet.