Douglas_Knight comments on A speculation on Near and Far Modes - Less Wrong

14 Post author: MichaelVassar 21 July 2010 06:24AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (65)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 22 July 2010 05:49:51AM 0 points [-]

Compare investment in railroads in the 19th century to investment patterns today

Many people say that railroads are quite comparable to the internet bubble. The investors did badly. Maybe Victorians were better at deploying capital to useful endeavors, but that's not the same as being good at investing. Also, one example doesn't demonstrate it. You've complained about the slow spread of farm tech [McCormick?].

Comment author: James_K 22 July 2010 09:56:32AM 1 point [-]

I agree, the 19th Century railroad surge was most likely bubble driven. Some bubbles drive investment in capital goods (these tend to have some positive spillovers for non-investors) and some don't. In recent times the tech bubble was a capital good bubble and the housing bubble was pretty much a consumption bubble. In the 19th Century the railroad bubble was a capital bubble and the tulip bubble was consumption good based.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 22 July 2010 01:40:22PM 0 points [-]

FWIW, the tulip bubble was in the 17th century. The South Seas bubble was in the 18th.

Comment author: James_K 22 July 2010 06:58:32PM 1 point [-]

That's what happens when I try to comment from memory. I think the basic point stands though. Bubbles of different kinds have existed since financial exchanges have existed and I don't think there's a pattern toward particularly destructive ones.

Comment author: MichaelVassar 22 July 2010 06:41:27PM 0 points [-]

The Victorians had a MUCH higher rate of return on capital than we do, in inflation adjusted dollars. Fair point about slow farm tech.