gwern comments on Against the standard narrative of human sexual evolution - Less Wrong

7 Post author: WrongBot 23 July 2010 05:28AM

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Comment author: gwern 23 July 2010 10:07:49AM 6 points [-]

simply say Malthus is irrelevant when his assumptions (positive relationship between wealth and birth rates, population grows faster than economy) don't hold?

This is the correct view; his argument is practically deductive, and the only way around it is to take one of his escape holes: people collectively choosing a higher standard of living rather than offspring. The real questions we should be discussing are:

  1. why does the demographic transition exist?
  2. will it last indefinitely?
  3. if it willn't, when does it end? And will it reverse itself to high-fertility and either a population increase or a decrease in standard of living?
  4. What repercussions does the end of the transition signal?

Question 4 leads us right into Robin Hanson's crack of a future dawn and Dream Time scenario.

Comment author: MichaelVassar 23 July 2010 02:37:20PM 3 points [-]

Applied to the argument in the post, the correct view is simply that Malthus was right.
Applied to understanding of Malthus and Darwin in general I agree with your comment.

Comment author: [deleted] 23 July 2010 04:40:21PM 0 points [-]

The demographic transition is temporary unless natural selection can't influence desire for offspring. Hanson I think makes a similar argument as to why the future in his view is probably sort of Malthusian.