CarlShulman comments on Contrived infinite-torture scenarios: July 2010 - Less Wrong

24 Post author: PlaidX 23 July 2010 11:54PM

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Comment author: CarlShulman 24 July 2010 06:32:05AM *  7 points [-]

Expected values and priors.

Comment author: CarlShulman 24 July 2010 07:15:34AM 8 points [-]

Saving someone from being eaten by bears might lead them to conceive the next Hitler, but it probably won't (saith my subjective prior). Even with an infinite future, I assign a substantial probability to hypotheses like:

  1. Avoiding human extinction will result in a civilization with an expected positive impact.
  2. Particular sorts of human global governance will enable coordination problems to be solved on very large scales.

And so forth. I won't be very confident about the relevant causal connections, but I have betting odds to offer on lots of possibilities, and those let me figure out general directions to go.