1) if something very bad is about to happen to you, what's your credence that you're in a rescue sim and have nothing to fear?
I'd give that some credence, though note that we've talking about subjective anticipation, which is a piece of humanly-compelling nonsense.
For me, essentially zero, that is I would act (or attempt to act) as if I had zero credence that I was in a rescue sim.
This is our monthly thread for collecting arbitrarily contrived scenarios in which somebody gets tortured for 3^^^^^3 years, or an infinite number of people experience an infinite amount of sorrow, or a baby gets eaten by a shark, etc. and which might be handy to link to in one of our discussions. As everyone knows, this is the most rational and non-obnoxious way to think about incentives and disincentives.