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red75 comments on Metaphilosophical Mysteries - Less Wrong
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Bayesian updating is the wrong thing to do in counterfactual mugging, and the reason TDT goes wrong on that problem is that it updates.
Does "extremal counterfactual mugging" where $100 is replaced by self-destruction of agent and $10000 is replaced by creation of 100 agent's copies (outside of agent's light cone) requires same answer as counterfactual mugging?