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Psy-Kosh comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 2 - Less Wrong
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I was betting Mr. Hat-n-Cloak = Quirelmort. (Remember that after the little scene Harry witnessed, he had to rush off. Perhaps to catch up and meet with Zambini? And the ultimate purpose of this was to arrange for Harry to further mistrust Dumbledore? At least, that was my very first thought, although now I'm thinking there were probably easier ways to accomplish that.)
Snape also seems like a wildcard possibility here - Zabini suspects him, anyway.
(OTOH, Quirrell knew Zabini was a quadruple agent, which could have intrigued him enough to want to see if he could be a quintuple...)
It might also be possible that even Eliezer hasn't decided who Mr. Hat-n-Cloak is yet--as he's mentioned previously, sometimes his fiction "writes itself." Thus, I suspect that Eliezer will not decide the character's identity until he advances the story a little more.
The famous Schrödinger's Hat.