NancyLebovitz comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 2 - Less Wrong

13 Post author: dclayh 01 August 2010 10:58PM

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Comment author: NancyLebovitz 28 August 2010 07:53:09PM 3 points [-]

Dropping a twelve year old girl off a roof is generally recognized as a bad idea in this world, but we don't have magic spells.

Hermione was enthusiastic about the war, and had asked to be dropped.

Since I might be a weird person myself, I've set up a poll about the plausibility of MOR Hermione.

Meanwhile, I recommend Jo Walton's Among Others, a fantasy novel with autobiographical elements about the coming of age of an intelligent, stubborn young woman. It won't be out till January, but I'll lend you my advance reading copy if you'll PM me your snail address.

Tentative theory: MOR Hermione is shaped by a combination of feminism and PUA, and the result is extremely odd. In any case, I find Harry, Draco, and McGonigle quite plausible, and I wonder if you've used different methods for creating them than you used for Hermione.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 28 August 2010 09:28:28PM 5 points [-]

I know nothing about PUA except what I read in other people's blog comments, and this part honestly leaves me baffled. Wha? Amplify please?

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 28 August 2010 09:52:04PM 5 points [-]

My knowledge of PUA is almost entirely from the comments here, too. Part of what gets on my nerves about it is that it seems to have a model of relationships in which people are in them solely because of status and fertility markers. There's nothing I can see about people actually liking each other (or, for that matter, disliking each other), or not being completely fungible if a better deal comes along.

There's that bit where Harry explains Lily's choice completely in terms of status issues-- this suggests that PUA/evolutionary psychology at least seems like a plausible set of theories to you. It's possible that I'm conflating them as having more in common than they actually do.

It gets to me that Hermione seems to be thinking in terms of herself and Harry having a Relationship rather than focusing on what they actually are to each other-- I think she'd have better sense. Or maybe I just hope she would.

It's interesting that I've gotten upvoted and a couple of positive comments for my complaints about the most recent chapter, while still getting information which suggests that Hermione is generally seen as more plausible than I see her. I tentatively suggest that my suspension of disbelief is broken, while other people are seeing some specific implausibilities that don't bother them nearly as much.

One suggestion about the Ravenclaw girls' vote-- they may well be voting for the most entertaining drama for themselves rather than what's best for Hermione. This may have already occurred to you, considering that so many of them wanted to catch Harry.

In their case, more of them should have generalized from one example.

Comment author: TobyBartels 29 August 2010 01:55:29AM *  5 points [-]

It gets to me that Hermione seems to be thinking in terms of herself and Harry having a Relationship rather than focusing on what they actually are to each other-- I think she'd have better sense. Or maybe I just hope she would.

Here maybe I see (but also generalising from one example) why people like your comments but don't qutie agree with you. This is definitely what I'd expect from a 12-year old, at least in the society that I grew up in, which should be similar to Hermione's. (Come to think of it, this reminds me of my sibling at that age, although not myself.) But it's not what I would have hoped.

Comment author: wedrifid 29 August 2010 02:57:14AM *  3 points [-]

There's nothing I can see about people actually liking each other (or, for that matter, disliking each other), or not being completely fungible if a better deal comes along.

The fact that status influences our behaviours does not make them any less real. Nor does the fact that there are good evolutionarily explainable reasons for loyalty mean that loyalty is any less noble.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 29 August 2010 06:48:50AM 4 points [-]

I agree that status influences our behavior. I don't agree that status is the only thing going on.

Comment author: wedrifid 29 August 2010 10:14:02AM *  3 points [-]

I agree that status influences our behavior. I don't agree that status is the only thing going on.

If you replaced "I don't agree that" with "I don't believe that" then it would avoid a misleading implication. ;)

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 29 August 2010 01:57:38PM 3 points [-]

I see that you made a claim that I didn't address, but I think you also missed what I was saying.

I haven't seen people who are into PUA make an explicit claim that there's nothing to relationships but status and fertility signaling. What I do see is talk about relationships as though there's nothing else. All I know about you folks is what you write, or at least how your text looks to me.

Comment author: pjeby 29 August 2010 02:51:00PM *  3 points [-]

What I do see is talk about relationships as though there's nothing else [to relationships but status and fertility signaling].

I believe I've pointed this out before, but at least some "PUA" training emphasizes personal development, emotional connection, and trust as the foundation for interaction and relationships. (The word "status" is not mentioned once on that page, and if I recall correctly, it is not mentioned in any of the videos being sold there either.)

Comment author: wedrifid 30 August 2010 03:25:02AM 3 points [-]

I believe I've pointed this out before, but at least some "PUA" training emphasizes personal development, emotional connection, and trust as the foundation for interaction and relationships. (The word "status" is not mentioned once on that page, and if I recall correctly, it is not mentioned in any of the videos being sold there either.)

Thanks for the link. I haven't seen that program before. I always enjoy absorbing things on 'Inner Game', essentially because the insights are usually applicable to life in general, completely aside from anything to do with mating.

Come to think of it the lessons are remarkably similar to those found in Alicorn's Luminosity that I've just been reading. I would go as far as to recommend Luminosity to people interested in gaining "PUA" kinds of qualities. The ability for self awareness and reflection, mastery over and cooperation with ones own emotions, the ability to know and actively seek ones own goals and the ability to empathise with how others are thinking are attractive traits regardless of gender and core features of 'inner game'.

Comment author: Alicorn 30 August 2010 03:38:09AM 3 points [-]

Come to think of it the lessons are remarkably similar to those found in Alicorn's Luminosity that I've just been reading. I would go as far as to recommend Luminosity to people interested in gaining "PUA" kinds of qualities.

Amusingly, I'm trying to portray Edward as a little awkwardly unluminous whenever I can do it without screwing up the plot.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 29 August 2010 03:09:02PM *  2 points [-]

You have, and thanks for the link.

The problem, as I see it, is that even that link still doesn't have any hint of wanting to be with a particular woman because of her individual qualities. It's more like "here are the traits any woman wants' and "apply those traits and women will want you and you won't go off-balance around them". It isn't creepy, but it's very impersonal so far as relationships are concerned.

It was interesting-- and new to me (you may have mentioned it, though)-- that in this version, the crucial thing wasn't status markers, it was moment-by-moment connection.

Comment author: HughRistik 31 August 2010 07:31:26AM *  9 points [-]

It isn't creepy, but it's very impersonal so far as relationships are concerned.

I agree with your perception that a lot of pickup discussion seems impersonal in the sense that it discusses commonalities across large groups of women. Why is this? Is it a "bug" in pickup, or a "feature"? In my view, the answer is "both."

A lot of knowledge in pickup is about the stages of the interaction that occur before you can really get to know someone on a personal level. You have to make a good enough impression for someone to even want to sit down with you and let you get to know them. As a result, it doesn't work to build models of people completely on-the-fly from the ground up in the middle of interacting with them.

Until you can get to know someone on a personal level, all you have to work with is an impersonal initial model. You start with a set of priors about how someone works based on what reference classes seem appropriate, and you update your beliefs about how they work when you gain new evidence.

Pickup artists have been doing a lot of work trying to figure out the correct priors to approach women with. As you can see from how AMP differs from what you've run into before, there is still some disagreement. The choice of reference classes in the explicit discourse of the seduction community sometimes seems a bit clunky. Often, only one reference class is described: "women." Also, PUAs don't explicitly talk much about how to update beliefs about women, and what evidence to look for in order to update.

Yet even though PUAs don't have the most sophisticated set of reference classes or updating process for their beliefs about women, there are plenty of ideas in the seduction community that relate to those skills. "Eliciting values" was a major part of Ross Jeffries NLP-based seduction starting in the late 80s; it involve drawing out a woman's individual values and beliefs and using those to interaction with her. There is also the notion of "calibration," the process of adjusting one's behavior to the individual woman's personality and responses (which sounds like it depends on some sorts of updating).

Why don't PUAs have more sophisticated reference classes? One possibility is that PUAs are stuck in stereotypes about women. Another possibility is that their single reference class of "woman" is actually useful enough to attain maps of commonly-encountered types of women that match up to the territory. These possibilities are not mutually exclusive: it's possible that a singular PUA reference class of "woman" is just powerful enough to allow them to get improvements in results with mainstream heterosexual women, but still lacking with other sorts of women that PUAs don't encounter so often.

The model that PUAs hold of women shouldn't be thought of as a set of facts about all women; it should be thought of as a set of strong priors that PUAs have found useful with the sorts of women they encounter most frequently.

Of course, the more divergent a woman is from other women, the more likely it is that a PUA's set of priors is wrong. But for women with rarer sets of personality traits and preferences, many PUAs just haven't seen enough of them to have useful models, yet...

...or have they? PUAs are always talking about the importance of "field experience." My hypothesis is that one of the reasons that field experience is necessary is that it helps guys approach future women with a more accurate set of priors, and update their beliefs faster when they encounter new evidence. Perhaps experienced PUAs do have more sophisticated reference classes and update very fast, but their knowledge is so contextual and subconscious that they haven't succeeded in putting it into words yet.

In general, PUAs use a certain set of priors for good reasons. What should our priors about their priors be? Well, we know about the potential for bias and ideology to exist in human communities, which should lower our confidence in PUA priors. On the other hand, we know that pickup is extremely popular and successful worldwide, which should raise our confidence in the priors of PUAs.

Nobody else has suggested a more empirically successful set of starting assumptions than PUAs, or articulated a way to attain better priors through more sophisticated reference classes, so they really have the "priors to beat." Just like it's hard to know how good a fighter is until someone beats them, it's hard to know how good PUA knowledge is until someone beats it and can explicitly describe what they are doing. Currently, it's safe to say that there are people who have beaten the general PUA model of women with a more sophisticated model and better set of reference classes and update process (and who can articulate their knowledge); yet I bet that most of the people who have done so are PUAs, or have some sort of PUA background (like me, for instance).

And yes, it sucks for non-gender-typical women that the best set of priors that men can achieve fails to describe how those women actually work. But when you think about it, the situation is that both gender-atypical women and PUAs are languishing under the statistical tyranny of gender-typical women. It's not the fault of PUAs that the set of starting assumptions they need to avoid getting burned all the time forces them to be wrong with all sorts of unusual types of women. Unless we can give them a better method of setting priors, like more sophisticated reference classes, we really can't knock them for using the priors that seem the most appropriate to them.

Update: See also my response to pjeby.

Do you have any thoughts about how PUAs should develop their priors better?

Comment author: pjeby 29 August 2010 04:31:46PM *  7 points [-]

The problem, as I see it, is that even that link still doesn't have any hint of wanting to be with a particular woman because of her individual qualities.

Hm. I guess you missed the part where fully one-third of the program being sold is devoted exclusively to cultivating curiosity about, and appreciation for "her individual qualities." ;-)

That being said, from a marketing perspective, there's no need to discuss what qualities the reader is looking for, since those will be distinct to the individual reader. Instead, the copy assumes only that they be women that the reader wants to have a deeper connection with.

(I'm not sure about the testimonials on that page, but I have seen others on the site from men who purchased some of this company's programs in order to improve their connection with a girlfriend or spouse.)

An important piece of background info, by the way. The number one question received by PUA trainers, or asked on PUA forums, etc. is, "How can I get that one girl I like?" (followed by, "How can I get back that girl I like that I blew it with?")

What guys actually want, and what they like to signal to other guys that they want, aren't always the same thing. ;-)

One reason, btw, that PUA marketing often emphasizes ability to attract multiple women, has nothing to do with how many women the average man actually wants! One of my mentors in direct marketing once explained to me that the reason you want to make the boldest, most over-the-top claims that you can still support/prove, is because the average person reads the claim and thinks, "wow, if it'll do that, then for [my much smaller need/want] it ought to work easily!"

In other words, bold or exaggerated marketing claims are not made because the average reader needs the result shown, but rather, because they give the reader something to discount back down to the level of the reader's own requirements!

If you look at most effective (i.e mostly direct) marketing, you'll see this principle being used all over the place... for example, most of us do not need to glue ourselves to a girder via a hard hat, yet Krazy Glue nonetheless used that as a product demonstration. The intention is for the viewer to infer, "if it'll do that, then it should be good enough for what I need."

It was interesting-- and new to me (you may have mentioned it, though)-- that in this version, the crucial thing wasn't status markers, it was moment-by-moment connection.

There is some (minor) overlap between theories, in the sense that you could say the qualities that AMP are teaching are status markers of a sort. But I think it's actually more likely to be the other way around: i.e. that it's these qualities themselves (presence, appreciation, and integrity) that are evolutionarily desirable/attractive and lead to having status, rather than status leading to having these qualities, or these qualities being status signals.

Comment author: wedrifid 30 August 2010 02:56:37AM 2 points [-]

I see that you made a claim that I didn't address, but I think you also missed what I was saying.

I was making almost the opposite point. You addressed a claim that I wouldn't make and I was distancing myself from it!

I haven't seen people who are into PUA make an explicit claim that there's nothing to relationships but status and fertility signaling. What I do see is talk about relationships as though there's nothing else. All I know about you folks is what you write, or at least how your text looks to me.

"You folks"? I am not and have never been a PUA of any kind! You are welcome to your stereotypes but please exclude me from them. :)

Comment author: HughRistik 30 August 2010 10:57:26PM 1 point [-]

Do you remember where you saw writing that gives you this impression? I've seen PUAs talk a lot about status and fertility signals underlying relationships. I don't think that the consensus is that "there's nothing else," but I've seen some PUAs write stuff that could give that impression, such as Mystery.

Comment author: wedrifid 31 August 2010 08:38:39AM *  0 points [-]

I don't think that the consensus is that "there's nothing else," but I've seen some PUAs write stuff that could give that impression, such as Mystery.

Even Mystery gives some air time to things other than status and fertility signals. He discusses the creation of individual identities targeted to a smaller reference group of the kind of women you hope to attract. Mind you, even then he makes it quite clear that he "doesn't give a @#$% who you are underneath, just what identity you are going to construct and convey."

Comment author: HughRistik 01 September 2010 01:19:09AM 0 points [-]

Even Mystery gives some air time to things other than status and fertility signals. He discusses the creation of individual identities targeted to a smaller reference group of the kind of women you hope to attract.

Yes, and he also talks about "love" all the time. He considers love to "pair-bonding," but it's definitely more than status and fertility.

He discusses the creation of individual identities targeted to a smaller reference group of the kind of women you hope to attract. Mind you, even then he makes it quite clear that he "doesn't give a @#$% who you are underneath, just what identity you are going to construct and convey."

It's true that he doesn't talk much about whether the identities you display should be genuine or not. I think he would agree that it's better if they are genuine. And since he is so big on outer game, he may feel that if you can make a consistent display of a certain identity, you will grow to fill whatever big boots you are walking around in. In my experience, that's actually true. As I've argued here before, if you can get a bunch of people to think that you are really cool without any significant factual lies, then you are that cool.

Comment author: Pavitra 28 August 2010 10:19:41PM 4 points [-]

There's that bit where Harry explains Lily's choice completely in terms of status issues-- this suggests that PUA/evolutionary psychology at least seems like a plausible set of theories to you. It's possible that I'm conflating them as having more in common than they actually do.

As I understand it, there are at least three separate things there: actual scientific evolutionary psychology; pop ev-psych, which is generally used as convenient rationalization for sexism and (less frequently) racism; and PUA, which is less science than engineering, but which comes with certain theories about why it works. I suspect that distinguishing the three properly probably requires a certain level of familiarity with the first one.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 28 August 2010 09:29:51PM *  3 points [-]

Early returns on the poll suggest that I was generalizing from one example. More people find Hermione plausible than not. Admittedly, it's a small sample, but I'm not expecting the results to reverse.