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NihilCredo comments on Open Thread, August 2010 - Less Wrong
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I agree with your post, especially since I expect to win my bet with Eliezer.
Did you notice that, as phrased in the link, your bet is about the following event: "[at a certain point in time under a few conditions] it will be interesting to hear Eliezer's excuses"? Technically, all Eliezer will have to do to win the bet will be to write a boring excuse.
Eliezer was the one who linked to that: the bet is about whether those conditions will be satisfied.
Anyway, he has already promised (more or less) not to make excuses if I win.