A long time ago on Overcoming Bias, there was a thread started by Eliezer which was a link to a post on someone else's blog. The linked post posed a question, something like: "Consider two scientists. One does twenty experiments, and formulates a theory that explains all twenty results. Another does ten experiments, formulates a theory that adequately explains all ten results, does another ten experiments, and finds that eir theory correctly predicted the results. Which theory should we trust more and why?"
I remember Eliezer said he thought he had an answer to the question but was going to wait before posting it. I've since lost the post. Does anyone remember what post this is or whether anyone ever gave a really good formal answer?
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