RobinZ comments on Open Thread, August 2010 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: NancyLebovitz 01 August 2010 01:27PM

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Comment author: RobinZ 08 August 2010 02:33:03AM 2 points [-]

With a degree of discombobulation, I imagine. I can't see any causal mechanism by which buying insurance would cause you to live longer, so unless the salesman knows something I wouldn't expect him to, he would seem to have acquired an unreliable belief. Given this, I would postpone buying any insurance from him in case this unreliable belief could have unfortunate further consequences* and I would reduce my expectation that the salesman might prove to be an exceptional rationalist.

* For example: given his superstition, he may have allotted inadequate cash reserves to cover future life insurance payments.