SilasBarta comments on Open Thread, August 2010 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: NancyLebovitz 01 August 2010 01:27PM

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Comment author: PeerInfinity 08 August 2010 02:41:48AM *  3 points [-]

I disagree with your analysis, but the details of why I disagree would be spoilers.

more details:

no, he's not deliberately selecting low-risk clients. He's trying to make as many sales as possible.

and he's had lots of clients. I don't know the actual numbers, but he has won awards for how many policies he has sold.

and he seems to honestly believe that there's something special about him that makes his clients not die. he's "one of those people".

and here's the first actuarial life table I found through a quick google search: http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html

Comment author: SilasBarta 08 August 2010 03:00:39AM *  1 point [-]

I disagree with your analysis, but the details of why I disagree would be spoilers.

But I can only make inferences on what you've told me. If there's a factor that throws off the general inferences you can make from a salesman's clientele, you can't fault me for not using it. It's like you're trying to say:

"This dude was born in the US. He's 50 years old. Can he speak English?" -> Yeah, probably. -> "Haha! No, he can't! I didn't tell you he was abducted to Cambodia as an infant and grew up there!"

Anyway, the next step is to estimate what fraction of salesman with the same clientele composition have not had their clients die and see how atypical he is. Plus, his sales record would have to start from early in his career, or else his clients fall mostly within recent sales, a time span in which people normally don't die anyway.

Comment author: PeerInfinity 08 August 2010 03:16:16AM 0 points [-]

I thought I provided enough information, but I apologise if I didn't.

I posted an rot13'd version of my answer, which also explains why I disagreed with your answer.

sorry if the rot13ing is pointlessly annoying.