Hence our own existence is evidence about the likelihood of life evolving [you write in great grandparent]
So in your view there is zero selection effect in this probability calculation?
In other words, our own existence increases your probability of there being lots of life just as much as the existence of an extraterrestrial civilization would?
In the previous sentence, please interpret "increase your probability just as much as" as "is represented by the same likelihood ratio as".
And the existence of human civilization increases your P(lots of life) just as much as it would if you were an immortal invulnerable observer who has always existed and who would have survived any calamity that would have killed the humans or prevented the evolution of humans?
Finally, is there any probability calculation in which you would adjust the results of the calculation to account for an observational selection effect?
Would you for example take observational selection effects into account in calculating the probability that you are a Boltzmann brain?
I can get more specific with that last question if you like.
So in your view there is zero selection effect in this probability calculation?
In other words, our own existence increases your probability of there being lots of life just as much as the existence of an extraterrestrial civilization would?
Depends how independent the two are. Also, myself existing increases the probability of human-like life existing, while the alien civilization increases the probability of life similar to themselves existing. If we're similar, the combined effects will be particularly strong for theories of convergent evolution.
The li...
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