RichardKennaway comments on Rationality quotes: August 2010 - Less Wrong
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I favour D'Arcy Thompson's view. If you are precisely wrong, it will be easy for evidence to refute you and make you less wrong. But if you are already vaguely right, how will you attain to being precisely right? How will you discover that you are actually vaguely wrong, if your wiggle room lets you explain away contrary evidence? As Francis Bacon wrote, "Truth arises more readily from error than from confusion."
Being vaguely right is only better when you need to decide an action now and have no opportunity to improve your knowledge. But being precisely right is better still. "Weak Bayesian evidence" is worth as much as a penny lying in the road: if you need to pick up a penny, you need a lot more than a penny.
But in fact, that is not the sort of vague rightness that the quote you linked to is about. Here is its context:
Carveth Read, Logic: Deductive and Inductive, p.351.
Popular thought, poetry, eloquence, manners, fine art, literature, politics, religion and moral philosophy. Is our "vague rightness" in such matters anything more than an illusion, a subjective sense of "meaningfulness" when we utter our words that has as much backing as a sub-prime mortgage?
ETA: That last sentence of the extended quote is rather good, and deserves to be quoted on its own. ETA again: except the final phrase: such people are up against the limits, not of its possibility, but of their own capacities.
This seems to imply that we should delegate decision-making to a system that is certain the sky is rgb(0,255,0) over a system that assigns the bulk of its probability to various shades of blue. But, if we know that the sky really is some shade of blue, the system with the less precise prior that the sky is blue will do better than the system that precisely thinks it's (bright lime!) green as new evidence becomes available.
I can't imagine that this is actually what's meant by the original quote or your reply. What is D'Arcy Thompson's view?
Here's some context for D'Arcy Thompson:
[ETA: Here, p.122, is the context for the reference to Herschel.]
And he goes on to rebuke the life sciences for having been slow to follow the same course. He suspends judgement on whether the mysteries of the mind and consciousness can be solved by physical science, "But of the construction and growth and working of the body, as of all else that is of the earth earthy, physical science is, in my humble opinion, our only teacher and guide."
I think that is a perverse reading of Carveth Read's maxim.