multifoliaterose comments on Against Cryonics & For Cost-Effective Charity - Less Wrong

10 Post author: multifoliaterose 10 August 2010 03:59AM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 11 August 2010 04:18:32AM 27 points [-]

So be it first noted that everyone who complains about trying to trade off cryonics against charity, instead of movie tickets or heart transplants for old people, is absolutely correct about cryonics being unfairly discriminated against.

That said, reading through these comments, I'm a bit disturbed that no one followed the principle of using the Least Convenient Possible World / strongest argument you can reconstruct from the corpse. Why are you accepting the original poster's premise of competing with African aid? Why not just substitute donations to the Singularity Institute?

So I know that, obviously, and yet I go around advocating people sign up for cryonics. Why? Because I'm selfish? No. Because I'm under the impression that a dollar spent on cryonics is marginally as useful as a dollar spent on the Singularity Institute? No.

Because I don't think that money spent on cryonics actually comes out of the pocket of the Singularity Institute? Yes. Obviously. I mean, a bit of deduction would tell you that I had to believe that.

Money spent on life insurance and annual membership in a cryonics organization rapidly fades into the background of recurring expenses, just like car insurance. To the extent it substituted for anything, it would tend to substitute for buying a house smaller by $300/year on the mortgage, or retirement savings, or something else that doesn't accomplish nearly as much good as cryonics.

There are maybe two or three people in the entire world who spend only the bare possible minimum on themselves, and contribute everything else to a rationally effective charity. They have an excuse for not signing up. No one else does.

And if you do sign up for cryonics, that contributes to a general frame of mind of "Wait, there are clever solutions to all the world's problems, this planet I'm living in doesn't make any sense, it's okay to do something that other people aren't doing, I'm part of the community of people who are part of the future, and that's why I'm going to donate to SIAI." It's a gateway drug; it's part of the ongoing lifestyle of someone with one foot in the future, staring back at a mad world and doing what they can to save it.

The basic fact about rational charity is that charity is not a matter of people starting out with fixed resources for charity and allocating them optimally. It is about the variance in the tiny little percentage of their income people give to rationally effective charity in the first place. And if I had to place my bets on empirical outcomes, I would bet that this blog post helped decrease that percentage in its readers, more than it actually resulted in any dollars going to an effective charity (i.e., SIAI, who is anyone kidding with this talk about development aid?) by helping to foster a sense of guilt and "ugh" around rational charity.

And finally, with all that said, if we actually did forget about the Singularity and the expected future value of the galaxy and take the original post at face value, if you consider the interval between a planet with slightly more developed poor countries and a planet signed up for cryonics, and ask about marginal impacts you can have on both relative to existing resources, then clearly you should be signing up for cryonics. I am tempted to add a sharp "Duh" to the end of this statement.

But of course, the actual impact of cryonics, just like the actual impact of development aid, in any rational utilitarian calculation, is simply its impact on the future of the galaxies, i.e., its impact on existential risk. Do I think that impact is net negative? Obviously not.

Comment author: Unknowns 11 August 2010 04:54:14AM 1 point [-]

Ordinary people don't want to sign up for cryonics, while they do want to go to movies and get heart transplants. So if multifoliaterose tells people, "Instead of signing up for cryonics, send money to Africa," he's much more likely to be successful than if he tells people, "Instead of going to the movies, send money to Africa."

So yes, if you want to call this "unfair discrimination," you can, but his whole point is to get people to engage in certain charities, and it seems he is just using a more effective means rather than a less effective one.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 11 August 2010 05:55:14AM 7 points [-]

I'm saying he'll get them to do neither.

Easy way for multi to provide an iota of evidence that what he's doing is effective: Find at least one person who says they canceled a cryo subscription and started sending an exactly corresponding amount of money to the Singularity Institute. If you just start sending an equal amount of money to the Singularity Institute, without canceling the cryo, then it doesn't count as evidence in his favor, of course; and that is just what I would recommend anyone feeling guilty actually do. And if anyone actually sends the money to Africa instead, I am entirely unimpressed, and I suggest that they go outside and look up at the night sky for a while and remember what this is actually about.

Comment author: dclayh 11 August 2010 06:24:06AM 2 points [-]

Even less than signing up for cryonics do most people want to murder their children. Do expect that telling them "Instead of murdering your children, send aid to Africa (or SIAI)" will increase the amount they send to Africa/SIAI?

Comment author: Unknowns 11 August 2010 07:31:54AM 3 points [-]

That isn't relevant because murdering your children doesn't cost money.

Comment author: dclayh 11 August 2010 07:35:08AM 2 points [-]

I think it does, since you'll probably want to buy weapons, hire an assassin, hire a lawyer, etc. But you can change the example to "Send money to al-Qaeda" if you prefer.

Comment author: Spurlock 11 August 2010 03:09:41PM 3 points [-]

I'm willing to bet that the number of LW readers seriously considering cryonics greatly outweighs the number seriously considering murdering their kids OR funding al-Qaeda. For the general population this might not be so, but as a LW wrong post it seems more than reasonable to contrast with cryonics rather than terrorism.