"one in a million chances happen a thousand times a day in China" is a bumper sticker phrase for that one I've found useful.

On my own, I've tried out the ol' medical test base rate fallacy explanation on a few people. My dad got it right away; so did one friend; another didn't seem to fully grok it within ~2 minutes of explanation. I haven't done any follow-ups to see if they've been able to retain and use the concept.