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Drahflow comments on Five-minute rationality techniques - Less Wrong
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If the standard is nukes and radar, then only things which leave the other side saying "how is that even possible?" or "that came out of nowhere" counts as surprising.
Robot drones are not surprising. I'm pretty sure invisibility tech would not be surprising. Anti-gravity would be surprising.
Decreasing frequency of surprising technology advancements are caused by faster and more frequent information of the general public about scientific advancements.
If the rate of news consumes grows faster than the rate of innovations produced, the perceived magnitude of innovation per news will go down.