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ciphergoth comments on Five-minute rationality techniques - Less Wrong
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I think it is mostly hopeless trying to teach rationality to most people.
For example, both of my parents studied Math in university and still have a very firm grip of the fundamentals.
I just got a phone call yesterday from my father in Germany saying: "We saw in the news, that a German tourist couple got killed in a shooting in San Francisco. Will you avoid going out after dark?" When I tried to explain that I won't update my risk estimates based on any such singular event, he seemed to listen to and understand formally what I said. Anyhow, he was completely unimpressed, finishing the conversation in an even more worried tone: "I see, but you will take care, won't you?"
"don't worry - that sort of thing is so rare, when it happens, it makes the news!"
Well said! Here's how Bruce Schneier put it:
Remember, if it’s in the news don’t worry about it. The very definition of news is “something that almost never happens.” When something is so common that it’s no longer news — car crashes, domestic violence — that’s when you should worry about it.
I wrote an essay about the utter irrationality of "stranger danger" based on that quote: http://messymatters.com/strangers
I think not worrying about things in the news needs some fine-tuning-- if a war is happening where you live, it will affect your safety level, and it will be in the news.
That's the canonical response now! Thanks!