PhilGoetz comments on Is it rational to be religious? Simulations are required for answer. - Less Wrong
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The basic idea is sound - If you really think religion is good/bad for X, the best proof would be to run a simulation and observe outcomes for X. I interpret the downvoting to -10 as a strong collective irrational bias against religion, even in a purely instrumental context.
The corollaries are distracting.
Except I don't read the post as endorsing testing whether religion is good or bad for X, but rather saying that if a simulation showed we'd be better off with religious beliefs we'd be better off adopting them. There's a number of reasons why this seems like a bad idea:
While true, I doubt the first effect would be significant. You're not very likely to be the one responsible for saving the earth and, singularity aside, terrestrial effects are likely to be far more important to you.
Contrawise, if you were capable of running a simulation, the odds of your input being relevant for existential are much higher. You might be running the simulation to help other people decide whether or not to be religious, or whether to persuade others to be religious, but then it becomes a lot more likely that the combined reduction in epistemic rationality would become an existential issue.