MichaelHoward comments on Closet survey #1 - Less Wrong
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[looks up how reliable human memory is, how it changes at every recall, how overconfident we tend to be about it]
[looks up a couple of conjuring sites]
Hmm...
Hmm...
I think there might be non-supernatural explanations with a greater than 1 in 100 billion chance. If it's even 1 in a million, you'll expect to see at least one in 30 years.