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lmm comments on Closet survey #1 - Less Wrong
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I tried hard to think of something that I haven't already talked about, so here goes:
I have a suspicion that the best economic plans developed by economists will have no effect or negative effect, because the ability of macroeconomics to describe what happens when we push on the economy is simply not good enough to let the government deliberately manipulate the economy in any positive way.
I think I agree with your premises here, but my conclusion is that our predictions will be weakly correlated with reality and our best plans will have a 55% or 51% success rate, not that they will have no effect or negative effect.
There no reason to assume that messing with a complex system that you don't understand means that you will have on average a 50% success rate.
There are many cases where trying to push a complex system into a local optima might have bad consequences. The system might get more robust but lose resiliency.