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gwern comments on Should I believe what the SIAI claims? - Less Wrong
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Those surveys suffer from selection bias. Nick Bostrom is going to try to get a similar survey instrument administered to a less-selected AI audience. There was also a poll at the AI@50 conference.
Any chance of piggybacking questions relevant to Maes-Garreau on that survey? As you point out on that page, better stats are badly needed.
And indeed, I suggested to SIAI folk that all public record predictions of AI timelines be collected for that purpose, and such a project is underway.
Hm, I had not heard about that. SIAI doesn't seem to do a very good job of publicizing its projects or perhaps doesn't do a good job of finishing and releasing them.
It just started this month, at the same time as Summit preparation.