It's more likely that the Klingon warbird can overpower the USS Enterprise.

To pick my own metaphor, it's more likely that randomly chosen matter will form clumps of useless crap than a shiny new laptop. As defined, UFAI is likely the default state for AGI, which is one reason I put such low hope on our future. I call myself an optimistic pessimist: I think we're going to create wonderful, cunning, incredibly powerful technology, and I think we're going to misuse it to destroy ourselves.

Why [is AI the most dangerous threat]?

Because intelligent beings are the most awesome and scary things I've ever seen. The History Channel is a far better guide than Eliezer in that respect. And with all our intelligence and technology, I can't see us holding back from trying to tweak intelligence itself. I view it as inevitable.

Me too [I also would appreciate more critical discussion from experts]

I'm hoping that the Visiting Fellows program and the papers written with the money from the latest Challenge will provide peer review in other respected venues.