CarlShulman comments on Should I believe what the SIAI claims? - Less Wrong
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This is a possibility (made more plausible if we're talking about those reins being used to incentivize early AIs to design more reliable and transparent safety mechanisms for more powerful successive AI generations), but it's greatly complicated by international competition: to the extent that careful limitation and restriction of AI capabilities and access to potential sources of power reduces economic, scientific, and military productivity it will be tough to coordinate. Not to mention that existing economic, political, and legal structures are not very reliably stable: electorates and governing incumbents often find themselves unable to retain power.