I applaud anyone who figures out stuff for themselves and posts it for the benefit of others, but this post is extremely unclear. How do you define these funky "causal probabilities" to someone who only knows regular conditional probabilities? And how can kissing the baby be evidence for anything, if it's determined entirely by which decision theory you adopt? In short, I feel your "explanation" doesn't look inside black boxes, only shuffles them around. I'd prefer a more formal treatment to ensure that no lions lurk in the shadows.