IMO, right now decision theory is not a settled topic to write tutorials like this about. You might say that I was dissatisfied with the tone of your post: it implied that somewhere there are wise mathematicians who know what "causal probabilities" mean, etc. In truth there are no such wise mathematicians. (Well, you could mention Judea Pearl as a first approximation, but AFAIK his work doesn't settle the issues completely, and he uses a very different formalism.) Any honest introduction should clearly demarcate the dubious parts with "here be dragons". When I started learning decision theory, introductions like yours wasted a huge amount of my time and frustrated me to no end, because they always seemed to assume things that just weren't there in the specialized literature.