Vladimir_Nesov comments on Taking Ideas Seriously - Less Wrong

51 Post author: Will_Newsome 13 August 2010 04:50PM

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Comment author: Wei_Dai 14 August 2010 09:58:51AM 6 points [-]

I'm surprised that you weren't aware that I took Tegmark's multiverse seriously, since I mentioned it in the UDT post. It was one of the main inspirations for me coming up with UDT. You can see here a 2006 proto-UDT that's perhaps more clearly based on Tegmark's idea.

Have they found a workaround for the problem of teacups turning into pheasants?

Well, UDT is sort of my answer to that. In UDT you can no longer say "I assign a small probability for observing this teacup turning into a pheasant" but you can still say "I'm willing to bet a large amount of money that this teacup won't turn into a pheasant." See also What are probabilities, anyway? I'm not sure if that answers your question, so let me know.

(You might also be interested in UDASSA, which was an earlier attempt to solve the same problem.)

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 14 August 2010 10:02:26AM *  0 points [-]

...which seems to be roughly the same "reality is a Darwinian concept" nonsense as what I came up with (do you agree?). You can still assign probabilities though, but they are no longer decision-theoretic probabilities.