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BrianScurfield comments on Taking Ideas Seriously - Less Wrong
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OK, tell me how you know in advance of having any theory what to observe?
BTW, please don't assume things about me like asserting I hold prejudices. The philosophical position I come from is a full blown one. - it is no mere prejudice. Also, I'm quite willing to change my ideas if they are shown to be wrong.
Ok, I won't assume that you believe, with Popper whom you quote, that inference based on many observations is impossible. I will instead assume that Popper is using the word "inference" very differently than it is used around here. And since you claim to be an ex-Bayesian, I will assume you know how the word is used here. Which makes your behavior up until now pretty inexplicable, but I will make no assumptions about the reasons for that.
Likewise, please do not assume that I believe that observation is neither theory-laden nor theory-directed. As it happens, I do not know in advance of a theory what to observe.
Of course, the natural thing for me to do now would be to challenge you to explain where theories come from in advance of observation. But why don't we both just grow up?
If you have a cite for a careful piece of reasoning which will cause us to drop our Bayesian complaisancy and re-embrace Popper, please provide it and let us read the text in peace.
From the problem-situation. Theories arise out of problems.
And where do problems come from in advance of theories and obs...
Never mind. Someone else can carry on. I have other things to attend to.
It sounds like Scurfield's "cite for a careful piece of reasoning" are the works of Karl Popper, which you are also familiar with. I don't have time to read the works of Karl Popper, but I have plenty of time to read blog comments about them. I've found every single comment in this thread interesting. Why discourage it?
I think the problem is a communication gap--"Bayesian" can mean different things to different people; and my best guess is that Scurfield converted from Laplace's degree-of-belief approach to probability. Around here, though, the dominant Bayesian paradigm is Jaynes', which takes the critiques of Bayes from the 1920 through the 1970s into account and digs through them to the epistemological bedrock below pretty well. Unless Scurfield has something new to say about Jaynes' interpretation, his critiques aren't that interesting to people who already know both Popper and Jaynes.
That can't actually be everyone here. And I hope no one is offended if I say that Scurfield seems to "know Popper" to a greater degree than any of the other participants in this thread. Why the scorn for the guy and the conversation?
He certainly knows Popper better than me. I scorn the conversation because it is not stimulating me - not causing me to consider ideas I have never considered before. I scorn the guy (scorn may be a bit too strong here, but just go with it) because so far he has mostly presented slogans, rather than arguments. (Admitedly, I haven't presented arguments either, but that is because his slogans strike me as either truisms or word games.)
The only thing I gained from this encounter was the link to the Critical Rationalism web site, where can be found links to writings by Popper and others. The CR site itself is, ..., well, not great. For example, check out the "What is CR?" page where CR is contrasted with two other possible approaches to philosophy. Please actually check it out before continuing.
Now weren't those subtle strawmen? :)
It occurs to me that one thing he could do which would be both interesting and useful would be to go through the sequences, adding comments critiquing Eliezer's epistemology lessons from the viewpoint of Popper and/or CR. Who knows? I might frequently find myself agreeing with him.
Indeed, that's why I am in favor of voting on old comments. Ideally, people can continue to leave criticisms on the sequences, and good ones will rise to the top over time.
Yes, I asked for clarification of the slogans and got more slogans, and asked for arguments supporting the claims and was given the claims again. I decided at that point to disengage.
Indeed - I hadn't bothered to check out the site, but it seems to me that most of the discipline of Philosophy falls outside "CR"'s "three major schools", and they're pretending Popper invented philosophy. It's really quite terrible.
If I may use another "slogan": communication is difficult. And another: misunderstandings are common. When you asked for clarification I wasn't sure what you wanted. I guessed and looks like I got it wrong. So you just withdraw? That's very Un-Popperian.
Really? Care to give a quote?
It is a reasonable interpretation of the "three major schools" analysis down near the bottom of the "What is CR" page at the "Critical Rationalism" website. See if you can talk someone into cleaning up that bit of enthusiasm. As they say "It's not helping".
That's a really high standard.
Hmmm. I never thought of that.
If you go as far as:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/CriticalRationalism/
...you may see some names you recognise.
LOL. That made my day. Be sure to let me know if you run across TH anywhere.
Incidentally, have you looked in at sbe recently? Pretty sad.
I don't see any people here that know both. Eliezer doesn't appear to either. See here and here.