Perplexed comments on Taking Ideas Seriously - Less Wrong

51 Post author: Will_Newsome 13 August 2010 04:50PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (257)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Perplexed 25 August 2010 05:33:57PM 4 points [-]

I think that the contribution that Bayesian methodology makes toward good criticism of a scientific hypothesis is that to "do the math", you need to be able to compute P(E|H). If H is a bad explanation, you will notice this when you try to determine (before you see E) how you would go about computing P(E|H). Alternately, you discover it when you try to imagine some E such that P(E|H) is different from P(E|not H).

No, you don't assign probabilities to criticisms, as such. But I do think that every atomic criticism of a hypothesis H contains at its heart a conditional proposition of the form (E|H) or else a likelihood odds ratio P(E|H)/P(E|not H) together with a challenge, "So how would you go about calculating that?"

Incidentally, you also ought to look at some of the earlier postings where EY was, in effect, using naive Bayes classifiers to classify (i.e. create ontologies), rather than using Bayes's theorem to evaluate hypotheses that predict. Also take a look at Pearl's book to get a modern Bayesian view of what explanation is all about.