A false theory, by contrast, is simply false, it has no connection to reality. How do you assign anything other than an arbitrary probability to something that simply cannot be?

Intrade knows that one! At the Higgs boson bet over 200 people think they know how to assign a probability to the issue.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=622297&z=1224442713385