timtyler comments on Taking Ideas Seriously - Less Wrong
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Popper's views are out of date. I am somewhat curious about why anyone with access to the relevant information would fail to update their views - but that phenomenon is not that interesting. People fail to update all the time for a bunch of sociological reasons.
Check with the terms of the bet. Or...
Consider bets on when a bridge will fail. It might never fail - and if so, good for the bridge. However, if traders think it has a 50% chance of surviving to the end of the year, that tells you something. The market value of the bet gives us useful information about the expected lifespan of the bridge. It is just the same with scientific theories.