timtyler comments on Taking Ideas Seriously - Less Wrong

51 Post author: Will_Newsome 13 August 2010 04:50PM

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Comment author: Perplexed 29 August 2010 06:55:36PM 2 points [-]

I think that the problem is that EY has introduced non-standard terminology here. Worse, he blames it on Jaynes, who makes no such mistake. I just looked it up.

There are two concepts here which must not be confused.

  • a priori information, aka prior information, aka background information
  • prior probabilities, aka priors (by everyone except EY. Jaynes dislikes this but acquiesces).

Prior information does indeed constitute a hypothesis in which you have complete confidence. I agree this is something of a weakness - a weakness which is recognized implicitly in such folklore as "Cromwell's rule" Prior information cannot be updated.

Prior probabilities (frequently known simply as priors) can be updated. In a sense, being updated is their whole purpose in life.

Comment author: timtyler 29 August 2010 07:51:34PM *  0 points [-]

Everyone calls prior probabilities "priors" - including: http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes