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multifoliaterose comments on Existential Risk and Public Relations - Less Wrong
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It would help to know what steps in the probabilistic proof don't have high probability for you.
For example, you might think that the singularity has a good probability of being relatively smooth and some kind of friendly, even without FAI. or you might think that other existential risks may still be a bigger threat, or you may think that Eliezer isn't putting a dent in the FAI problem.
Or some combination of these and others.
Yes, I agree with you. I plan on making my detailed thoughts on these points explicit. I expect to be able to do so within a month.
But for a short answer, I would say that the situation is mostly that I think that: