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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Existential Risk and Public Relations - Less Wrong
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Scott says that he thinks P != NP is easier / likely to come first.
Here an interview with Scott Aaronson:
It's interesting that you both seem to think that your problem is easier, I wonder if there's a general pattern there.
What I find interesting is that the pattern nearly always goes the other way: you're more likely to think that a celebrated problem you understand well is harder than one you don't know much about. It says a lot about both Eliezer's and Scott's rationality that they think of the other guy's hard problems as even harder than their own.