Edit: Hang on, let me try that again before you respond.
I suppose it depends what you mean by rationality but it seems to me that the same argument that is often used to make people favour strong dominance (regardless of the world state, strong dominance leads to better outcomes) can actually be used to argue that it's not a very good decision procedure (because there are world states where using this decision procedure does not lead to a better outcome), at least as long as there are decision theories that do lead to better outcomes in general (regardless of the world state, these decision theories lead to better outcomes than other decision theories - or the weaker but more realistic, in more world states, these decision theories lead to sensible outcomes.).
Just as the rationality of a strong dominance decision is justified by it leading to better outcomes than other decisions, the rationality of a decision theory could be justified by whether it leads to better outcomes than other decision theories.
If that's not what you mean by rationality that's fine but then what establishes strong dominance as being a rational way of acting and hence what makes two boxing on Newcomb's rational? I'm not saying there's no answer to that but I am saying that I will struggle to respond to your question without knowing how you think about rationality in that situation.
I'm confident you know more about this topic than me so I will try to understand your points but so far, I haven't seen anything which would: a.) Establish a decision based on strong dominance at an individual point in time as being rational without: b.) Establishing strong dominance as an irrational decision procedure by using a similar argument but applied to decision procedures rather than individual decisions.
I'd be interested to know whether you think this is flawed as I'd be happy to either change my mind or learn to explain my reasoning better, depending on what the flaw was.
Rationality and winning may not be the same thing. But I do think they’re linked. If we’re asked to judge whether the principle of strong dominance is rational, we say yes because it always leads to the best outcome (leads to “winning”). If we were asked to choose from a 10% chance of winning $100 or a 20% chance, we would say it was rational to choose the 20% chance, once again because there’s a higher chance of winning.
In fact, it seems to me that people do judge whether a decision is rational based on whether it leads to "winning" but they jus...
A common background assumption on LW seems to be that it's rational to act in accordance with the dispositions one would wish to have. (Rationalists must WIN, and all that.)
E.g., Eliezer:
And more recently, from AdamBell:
Within academic philosophy, this is the position advocated by David Gauthier. Derek Parfit has constructed some compelling counterarguments against Gauthier, so I thought I'd share them here to see what the rest of you think.
First, let's note that there definitely are possible cases where it would be "beneficial to be irrational". For example, suppose an evil demon ('Omega') will scan your brain, assess your rational capacities, and torture you iff you surpass some minimal baseline of rationality. In that case, it would very much be in your interests to fall below the baseline! Or suppose you're rewarded every time you honestly believe the conclusion of some fallacious reasoning. We can easily multiply cases here. What's important for now is just to acknowledge this phenomenon of 'beneficial irrationality' as a genuine possibility.
This possibility poses a problem for the Eliezer-Gauthier methodology. (Quoting Eliezer again:)
The problem, obviously, is that it's possible for irrational agents to receive externally-generated rewards for their dispositions, without this necessarily making their downstream actions any more 'reasonable'. (At this point, you should notice the conflation of 'disposition' and 'choice' in the first quote from Eliezer. Rachel does not envy Irene her choice at all. What she wishes is to have the one-boxer's dispositions, so that the predictor puts a million in the first box, and then to confound all expectations by unpredictably choosing both boxes and reaping the most riches possible.)
To illustrate, consider (a variation on) Parfit's story of the threat-fulfiller and threat-ignorer. Tom has a transparent disposition to fulfill his threats, no matter the cost to himself. So he straps on a bomb, walks up to his neighbour Joe, and threatens to blow them both up unless Joe shines his shoes. Seeing that Tom means business, Joe sensibly gets to work. Not wanting to repeat the experience, Joe later goes and pops a pill to acquire a transparent disposition to ignore threats, no matter the cost to himself. The next day, Tom sees that Joe is now a threat-ignorer, and so leaves him alone.
So far, so good. It seems this threat-ignoring disposition was a great one for Joe to acquire. Until one day... Tom slips up. Due to an unexpected mental glitch, he threatens Joe again. Joe follows his disposition and ignores the threat. BOOM.
Here Joe's final decision seems as disastrously foolish as Tom's slip up. It was good to have the disposition to ignore threats, but that doesn't necessarily make it good idea to act on it. We need to distinguish the desirability of a disposition to X from the rationality of choosing to do X.