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thomblake comments on Desirable Dispositions and Rational Actions - Less Wrong
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Comments (180)
Are you sure? I'm not objecting to the arbitrary payoffs or complaining because he doesn't seem to be maximizing his own utility. I'm objecting to his ability to predict my actions. Give me a scenario which doesn't require me to assign a non-zero prior to woo and in which a revisionist decision theory wins. If you can't, then your "improved" decision theory is no better than woo itself.
Regarding the Absent Minded Driver, I didn't recognize the reference. Googling, I find a .pdf by one of my guys (Nobelist Robert Aumann) and an LW article by Wei-Dai. Cool, but since it is already way past my bedtime, I will have to read them in the morning and get back to you.
The only 'woo' here seems to be your belief that your actions are not predictable (even in principle!). Even I can predict your actions within some tolerances, and we do not need to posit that I am a superintelligence! Examples: you will not hang yourself to death within the next five minutes, and you will ever make another comment on Less Wrong.
"ever"? No, "never".
Wha?
In case it wasn't clear, it was a one-off prediction and I was already correct.
In case mine wasn't clear, it was a bad Gilbert & Sullivan joke. Deservedly downvoted. Apparently.
You need a little more context/priming or to make the joke longer for anyone to catch this. Or you need to embed it in a more substantive and sensible reply. Otherwise it will hardly ever work.
Counterexample
I'd call that a long joke, wouldn't you?
See what I mean? I made it long and it still didn't work. :)
I wasn't sure, so I held off posting my reply (a decision I now regret). It would have been, "Well, hardly ever."