1A. It may well be a wrong problem. if so it ought to be dissolved.

1B. If so, many theorists (including presumably nobel prize winners), have missed it since 1969.

1C. Your intuition should not be considered a persuasive argument, even by you.

2 . Even ignoring any singularitarian predictions, given the degree to which knowledge acceleration has already advanced, you should expect to see cases where old standards are blown away with seemingly little effort.

Maybe this isn't one of those cases, but it should not surprise you if we learn that humanity as a whole has done more decision theory in the past few years than in all previous history.

Given that the similar accelerations are happening in many fields, there are probably several past-nobel-level advances by rank amateurs with no special genius.