the question then is, does that quote, placed in context, somehow make the overall post more condescending than it already was?
"They are probably not crazy" strikes me as "damning with faint praise". IMHO, it definitely raises the overall condescension level.
Whatever condescension occurred, it occurred as soon as Wei said that he was right and Aumann et al. were wrong.
No. Peons claim lords are wrong all the time. It is not even impolite, if you are willing to admit your mistake and withdraw your claim reasonably quickly.
Condescension starts when you attempt to "charitably" analyze the source of the error.
Do you agree that if this were true, if the experts got it wrong, then we ought to try to understand how that happened, and not just dismiss them as crazy?
Of course. But if I merely had good reason to believe they were wrong, then my most urgent next step would be to determine whether it were true that they got it wrong. I would begin by communicating with the experts, either privately or through the peer-reviewed literature, so as to get some feedback as to whether they were wrong or I was mistaken. If it does indeed turn out that they were wrong, I would let them take the first shot at explaining the causes of their mistake. I doubt that I would try to analyze the cause of the mistake myself unless I were a trained historian dealing with a mistake at least 50 years old. Or, if I did try (and I probably have), I would hope that someone would point out my presumption.
A common background assumption on LW seems to be that it's rational to act in accordance with the dispositions one would wish to have. (Rationalists must WIN, and all that.)
E.g., Eliezer:
And more recently, from AdamBell:
Within academic philosophy, this is the position advocated by David Gauthier. Derek Parfit has constructed some compelling counterarguments against Gauthier, so I thought I'd share them here to see what the rest of you think.
First, let's note that there definitely are possible cases where it would be "beneficial to be irrational". For example, suppose an evil demon ('Omega') will scan your brain, assess your rational capacities, and torture you iff you surpass some minimal baseline of rationality. In that case, it would very much be in your interests to fall below the baseline! Or suppose you're rewarded every time you honestly believe the conclusion of some fallacious reasoning. We can easily multiply cases here. What's important for now is just to acknowledge this phenomenon of 'beneficial irrationality' as a genuine possibility.
This possibility poses a problem for the Eliezer-Gauthier methodology. (Quoting Eliezer again:)
The problem, obviously, is that it's possible for irrational agents to receive externally-generated rewards for their dispositions, without this necessarily making their downstream actions any more 'reasonable'. (At this point, you should notice the conflation of 'disposition' and 'choice' in the first quote from Eliezer. Rachel does not envy Irene her choice at all. What she wishes is to have the one-boxer's dispositions, so that the predictor puts a million in the first box, and then to confound all expectations by unpredictably choosing both boxes and reaping the most riches possible.)
To illustrate, consider (a variation on) Parfit's story of the threat-fulfiller and threat-ignorer. Tom has a transparent disposition to fulfill his threats, no matter the cost to himself. So he straps on a bomb, walks up to his neighbour Joe, and threatens to blow them both up unless Joe shines his shoes. Seeing that Tom means business, Joe sensibly gets to work. Not wanting to repeat the experience, Joe later goes and pops a pill to acquire a transparent disposition to ignore threats, no matter the cost to himself. The next day, Tom sees that Joe is now a threat-ignorer, and so leaves him alone.
So far, so good. It seems this threat-ignoring disposition was a great one for Joe to acquire. Until one day... Tom slips up. Due to an unexpected mental glitch, he threatens Joe again. Joe follows his disposition and ignores the threat. BOOM.
Here Joe's final decision seems as disastrously foolish as Tom's slip up. It was good to have the disposition to ignore threats, but that doesn't necessarily make it good idea to act on it. We need to distinguish the desirability of a disposition to X from the rationality of choosing to do X.