CarlShulman comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong

23 Post author: multifoliaterose 19 August 2010 10:47PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 20 August 2010 03:57:56AM 4 points [-]

I would say that no one can reasonably believe all of the following at the same time with a high degree of confidence: 1) I am critical to this Friendly AI project that has a significant chance of success. 2) There is no significant chance of Friendly AI without this project. 3) Without Friendly AI, the world is doomed.

I see. So it's not that any one of these statements is a forbidden premise, but that their combination leads to a forbidden conclusion. Would you agree with the previous sentence?

BTW, nobody please vote down the parent below -2, that will make it invisible. Also it doesn't particularly deserve downvoting IMO.

Comment author: CarlShulman 20 August 2010 04:21:41AM *  2 points [-]

1) can be finessed easily on its own with the idea that since we're talking about existential risk even quite small probabilities are significant.

3) could be finessed by using a very broad definition of "Friendly AI" that amounted to "taking some safety measures in AI development and deployment."

But if one uses the same senses in 2), then one gets the claim that most of the probability of non-disastrous AI development is concentrated in one's specific project, which is a different claim than "project X has a better expected value, given what I know now about capacities and motivations, than any of the alternatives (including future ones which will likely become more common as a result of AI advance and meme-spreading independent of me) individually, but less than all of them collectively."

Comment author: WrongBot 20 August 2010 04:29:45AM 5 points [-]

Who else is seriously working on FAI right now? If other FAI projects begin, then obviously updating will be called for. But until such time, the claim that "there is no significant chance of Friendly AI without this project" is quite reasonable, especially if one considers the development of uFAI to be a potential time limit.

Comment author: CarlShulman 20 August 2010 04:45:23AM *  5 points [-]

"there is no significant chance of Friendly AI without this project" Has to mean over time to make sense.

People who will be running DARPA, or Google Research, or some hedge fund's AI research group in the future (and who will know about the potential risks or be able to easily learn if they find themselves making big progress) will get the chance to take safety measures. We have substantial uncertainty about how extensive those safety measures would need to be to work, how difficult they would be to create, and the relevant timelines.

Think about resource depletion or climate change: even if the issues are neglected today relative to an ideal level, as a problem becomes more imminent, with more powerful tools and information to deal with it, you can expect to see new mitigation efforts spring up (including efforts by existing organizations such as governments and corporations).

However, acting early can sometimes have benefits that outweigh the lack of info and resources available further in the future. For example, geoengineering technology can provide insurance against very surprisingly rapid global warming, and cheap plans that pay off big in the event of surprisingly easy AI design may likewise have high expected value. Or, if AI timescales are long, there may be slowly compounding investments, like lines of research or building background knowledge in elites, which benefit from time to grow. And to the extent these things are at least somewhat promising, there is substantial value of information to be had by investigating now (similar to increasing study of the climate to avoid nasty surprises).