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Perplexed comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
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I would suggest that, in order for this set of beliefs to become (psychiatrically?) forbidden, we need to add a fourth item. 4) Dozens of other smart people agree with me on #3.
If someone believes that very, very few people yet recognize the importance of FAI, then the conjunction of beliefs #1 thru #3 might be reasonable. But after #4 becomes true (and known to our protagonist), then continuing to hold #1 and #2 may be indicative of a problem.
With the hint from EY on another branch, I see a problem in my argument. Our protagonist might circumvent my straitjacket by also believing 5) The key to FAI is TDT, but I have been so far unsuccessful in getting many of those dozens of smart people to listen to me on that subject.
I now withdraw from this conversation with my tail between my legs.
All this talk of "our protagonist," as well the weird references to SquareSoft games, is very off-putting for me.