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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
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I would suggest that, in order for this set of beliefs to become (psychiatrically?) forbidden, we need to add a fourth item. 4) Dozens of other smart people agree with me on #3.
If someone believes that very, very few people yet recognize the importance of FAI, then the conjunction of beliefs #1 thru #3 might be reasonable. But after #4 becomes true (and known to our protagonist), then continuing to hold #1 and #2 may be indicative of a problem.
Dozens isn't sufficient. I asked Marcello if he'd run into anyone who seemed to have more raw intellectual horsepower than me, and he said that John Conway gave him that impression. So there are smarter people than me upon the Earth, which doesn't surprise me at all, but it might take a wider net than "dozens of other smart people" before someone comes in with more brilliance and a better starting math education and renders me obsolete.
John Conway is smarter than me, too.
Simply out of curiosity:
Plenty of criticism (some of it reasonable) has been lobbed at IQ tests and at things like the SAT. Is there a method known to you (or anyone reading) that actually measures "raw intellectual horsepower" in a reliable and accurate way? Aside from asking Marcello.
I was beginning to wonder if he's available for consultation.
Read the source code, and then visualize a few levels from Crysis or Metro 2033 in your head. While you render it, count the average Frames per second. Alternatively, see how quickly you can find the prime factors of every integer from 1 to 1000.
Which is to say... Humans in general have extremely limited intellectual power. instead of calculating things efficiently, we work by using various tricks with caches and memory to find answers. Therefore, almost all tasks are more dependant on practice and interest than they are on intelligence. So, rather then testing the statement "Eliezer is smart" it has more bearing on this debate to confirm "Eliezer has spent a large amount of time optimizing his cache for tasks relating to rationality, evolution, and artificial intelligence". Intelligence is overrated.
Sheer curiosity, but have you or anyone ever contacted John Conway about the topic of u/FAI and asked him what the thinks about the topic, the risks associated with it and maybe the SIAI itself?
"raw intellectual power" != "relevant knowledge". Looks like he worked on some game theory, but otherwise not much relevancy. Should we ask Steven Hawking? Or take a poll of Nobel Laureates?
I am not saying that he can't be brought up to date in this kind of discussion, and has a lot to consider, but not asking him as things are indicates little.
Richard Dawkins seems to have enough power to infer the relevant knowledge from a single question.
Candid, and fair enough.
Raw intellectual horsepower is not the right kind of smart.
Domain knowledge is much more relevant than raw intelligence.