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cousin_it comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
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What made you switch to this position?
There was a crack (the fundamental incoherence of the Singularitian belief system) that I was having to diligently cover with wallpaper (faith in the absence of evidence) so that I wouldn't notice it. Eventually I reached a state of mind in which I could allow myself to see the crack.
Um, that's not an informative answer to anyone but yourself. Is there any specific piece of evidence that became known to you, or became more significant to you, at that time?
Did you read the bit about the Tegmark multiverse and anthropic reasoning?
I'm embarrassed to admit that I was reading while tired, and didn't even notice there was a link in the comment. However, even after reading that, rwallace's epiphany remains opaque to the rest of us. He explains that a change of attitude was necessary in order to accept whatever evidence of AI's difficulty he already had, but he explains nothing about what that evidence might be. It's still uninformative to anyone but himself.