Comment on The Importance of Self-Doubt

Fri, 20 Aug 2010 15:22:31 GMT

I use a heuristic which tells me to ignore Pascal-like wagers

I am not sure exactly what using this heuristic entails. I certainly understand the motivation behind the heuristic:

when you multiply an astronomical utility (disutility) by a miniscule probability, you may get an ordinary-sized utility (disutility), apparently suitable for comparison with other ordinary-sized utilities. Don't trust the results of this calculation! You have almost certainly made an error in estimating the probability, or the utility, or both.

But how do you turn that (quite rational IMO) lack of trust into an action principle? I can imagine 4 possible precepts:

Don't buy lottery tickets

Don't buy insurance

Don't sell insurance

Don't sell back lottery tickets you already own.

Is it rationally consistent to follow all 4 precepts, or is there an inconsistency?

Discuss